We all love a good underdog story when a team or player that no one believes in comes out on top. In sports betting, underdogs are where the real money is made. Sure, favorites win more often, but their odds are low. Betting on an underdog at the right time can multiply your winnings in a way that betting on favorites never will. But here’s the catch: Not all underdogs on 22Bet are worth betting on.
How do you spot the ones that actually have a chance? That’s what we’re diving into today.
Why Betting on Underdogs Can Be More Profitable
Let’s start with the basics. In most sports, the betting public loves favorites. They’re predictable, they win a lot, and people feel safer betting on them. This means bookmakers adjust the odds they make favorites less profitable because they know people will bet on them anyway.
Underdogs, on the other hand, are often undervalued. If you know how to spot a live, dangerous underdog, you can find bets where the odds don’t match real reality and where the edge lies of an Underdog That Could Actually Win
Not every underdog is worth your money. Here are some key signs that a team or player is primed for an upset:
Underdogs with Momentum
Sports are emotional. When an underdog comes in with a hot streak, they’re not just playing better; they believe they can win. And belief fuels upsets.
- Example (Soccer): A mid-table team that has won four games in a row faces a top club that just lost two key players to injury. The odds still heavily favor the top club, but form suggests the underdog could pull off a shock.
- Example (NBA): A lower-seeded team in the playoffs wins Game 1, yet they’re still underdogs in Game 2. If they dominated the first game, bookmakers may not have adjusted enough.
When the Favorite Is Overrated
Sometimes, the public loves a favorite too much. Maybe they’ve been winning, but not convincingly. Maybe they’ve been lucky. If you can spot a favorite that’s weaker than people think, you’ve got a great underdog betting opportunity.
- Example (Tennis): A top-ranked player who has been winning but struggling against weak opponents. If they now face a lower-ranked player in top form, the upset is more likely than the odds suggest.
- Example (Football): A top team has been beating weak opponents, but when they play a real challenge, they struggle. They might not be as dominant as people assume.
Underdogs with a Style That Counters the Favorite
Some teams or players just match up well against a certain opponent.
- Example (MMA): A wrestler is fighting a knockout artist. The knockout artist is favored, but if the wrestler can take them down repeatedly, the fight could go the other way.
Bet the Spread Instead of the Moneyline
Sometimes, an underdog won’t win outright, but they’ll cover the spread. Instead of betting on them to win, bet on them to lose by fewer points.
- Example: If an NBA underdog is +10, betting them to lose by fewer than 10 points is safer than betting them to win outright.
Look for “Live” Underdogs
A live underdog has a realistic chance of winning, not just a long shot. You can often find these by looking at:
- Recent form (winning streaks, close losses against good teams)
- Key injuries on the favorite
- Head-to-head matchups (if the underdog has beaten the favorite before)